I recently attended and “Small Business Analyst” event hosted by Cisco in which the Company talked to us analyst types about their strategy in approaching the SB market on a worldwide basis. The conference lasted a day, the group of attending analysts was small but well represented including leading names in the IT analyst market such as Gartner, Forrester and Yankee Group.
New products were showcased and strategies outlined and while I won’t go into detail about new products due to non-disclosure conditions on many of them and also because it wasn’t the products that impressed me the most. Make no mistake the products did impress me and my colleague – enough for us to decide that we should evaluate them for our own business.
What impressed me the most was the focus and disciple Cisco has brought to bear. Too often we see companies that are leaders in the enterprise space take on the SB market opportunity under the rationale that what’s good for enterprise is good for SBs – with a few changes. Wrong. Too often we have seen it doesn’t work and when it doesn’t these firm redefine “SB market” to simply mean companies that are a little bit smaller than their traditional market and calling it SB or worse “SMB”. The latter often used as a catch all for all those firms that are currently not being sold to be the comapny’s sales force which is too boxed in in their thinking of who their customers are and how they should be sold. Its organizational inertia at work.
Cisco, themselves a leader in the enterprise space is approaching the market as any company in it’s position should – with a strategy, products and organization designed to address SB needs. Here are some of the key elements
Cisco has created an entirely new group to not just market products to SBs but to design products that fit SB needs. The product development group will re-think products ranging from simple routers, switches to telephony products keeping SB needs as their sole perspective. For a company used to enterprise style margins on products they have realized that they may not be able to gain the same kind of margins on thee SB products but the important point is that they are incorporating that reality into their strategy. This is a very difficult shift to make for most companies but Cisco realizes it is not just about how products are manufactured but how the organization is structured as well.
Speaking of organization, the Cisco SB organization is in many ways a company within a company with its own set of priorities and complete in that it has its own sales, marketing, services, support and product development initiatives.
Marketing: Cisco has come to terms with some market realities such as the fact that the Cisco brand is not well known among SBs. Cisco’s VP of Small Business Marketing Rick Moran, stressed this point as a major component of their SB marketing strategy. Here again we see Cisco’s pragmatism, willingness to adapt and learn come through. For a company traditionally used to talking about speeds and feeds their SB marketing efforts exhibit a focus on SBs and the people running them. The importance of SB to Cisco as a company is evident from the fact that there is a link to a variety of SB related pages on the Cisco home page. Cisco has established a place where SBs can have a conversation with Cisco, its employees and its partners called Cisco Community Central. the site is less used to market Cisco products and more to help SBs learn about the developments relevant to them – technological or otherwise. It’s a young site – barely a year old but a promising start.
Sales/Channel Development: Cisco has always relied on a strong network of channel partners to sell, service and support its products. Now Cisco has introduced a special certification for channel partners selling to SBs called “Cisco Select Certification”. Achieving that certification requires taking training and an exam. Interestingly, Cisco has laid out the return in investment for a channel partner to help them decide whether it is worth it to achieve that certification or not. Achieving the certification comes with the usual benefits of support and market development funds.
Regional Sensitivity: Cisco is showing a lot of pragmatism by not taking a “one-size-fits-all” approach to SB marketing. The bulk of the current SB effort appears to be targeted towrads countries where Cisco has a leadership position in the enterprise space. In other words, given their penetration of enterprise markets its seems logical to go after SB markets in order to increase revenues from a region. Also not all solutions are being marketed aggressively to SBs in all regions. For example, in countries such as India where are large opportunity still exists among enterprise markets for solutions such as collaboration or enterprise network hardware, the SB market is taking a back seat – for now.
Services and Support: Cisco VP Sherri Liebo introduced the services and support offerings targeted towards SBs. These include add-on warranties and varying levels of support for channel partners as well as end customers. The support solutions range from entry level technical support (branded as Smart Foundation services) to ongoing monitoring of network resources (SmartCare and SmartNET). All have varying levels of support and hardware replacement options. These will also be sold through the burgeoning network of SB channel partners.
Bottom line – I believe Cisco is off to a good start in the SB space exhibiting the focus and discipline required to gain share in this very difficult market.
Over the last two decades, the global small and mid-market businesses, SMB (1-999 employee size) market has been the growth engine for the IT industry at large. The reason is quite simply that SMBs account for over 80 percent of businesses in any country – developed or developing. For much of those two decades, SMBs have primarily focused on building core infrastructure with the bulk of their investment allotted towards buying PCs and desktop applications such as Office, desktop publishing and other industry specific software. This initial phase was followed by a longer continuing phase wherein SMBs shifted their investments to Networking technologies. However, this was still part of core infrastructure investments made by SMBs.
The reason for this lengthy investment cycle was that investments occurred at different times for different SMBs depending upon firm size and geographies. SMBs form the essential thread of the economic fabric of any country and to a great extent their fortunes and investment capabilities are dependent on the economic situations and policies of the countries they represent. So as the fortunes of the emerging world turned favorable, so did the investment capacity of these SMBs. Conversely, as economies have stalled in recent times, investment capacity of SMBs has been deeply affected.
Tough economic times bring investment decisions into sharp focus. The result is typically lower investment levels. It also sharpens medium and longer term priorities. That leads to smart investments. But also investments made at this time become longer term drivers of investment for adjacent areas. We at Techaisle believe that the recent economic implosion acts as a catalyst for such action and change among SMBs.
The New SMB Imperative: SMBs are sharpening their medium and longer term priorities leading to smart investments. Value Shift: SMBs are now looking beyond infrastructure investments as their respective countries slowly emerge from the global downturn. Enablement v/s Empowerment: SMBs are being driven towards empowerment technologies that are outside of normal technology adoption curve. Empowerment Technologies: SMBs in emerging market countries show greater intentions of investing in these new priorities than SMBs in mature markets. Implications for Channel Partners: Shift to newer priorities is and will impact channels the most in next five years. Conclusion: New priorities bring to light new opportunities for vendors and channel partners to positively impact the success of SMBs on a global basis.
Small & Mid-Market Businesses (SMBs with 1-999 employees) in G20 countries are expected to spend US$435 Billion on IT in 2009. This represents a little over 89 percent of global SMB IT spend in 2009. In contrast the G20 are expected to account for 87% of global GDP in 2009. While 2009 has been a slow growth year with pace picking in the latter half of the year, G20 SMBs IT spend is forecast to grow by 4.5 percent in 2010 to US$455 Billion. The forecast growth rate is weighed down by the slow growth within established countries that are members of G20.
The G20 comprises the USA, Japan, China, Germany, France, UK, Italy, Russia, Brazil, Canada, India, Mexico, Australia, South Korea, Turkey, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, South Africa and the rest of the EU (represented by the European council president).
There are a total of 48 million SMBs in the G20 member countries that represent 67 percent of SMBs globally. The PC penetration among the G20 SMBs is 70 percent. This results in over 33 million SMBS that have at least one PC representing 83 percent of global SMBs that have a PC. Similarly, Internet penetration is 65 percent and broadband penetration is 59 percent among the G20 SMBs. However, the server penetration among G20 SMBs is only 20 percent.
In a survey of SMBs across several countries, when businesses were specifically asked which areas of IT were they planning to invest in when the economy in their respective countries improved, the following priorities emerged:
Purchasing new PCs
Purchasing new servers
Upgrading business productivity software (Office)
Upgrading network hardware (switches, routers)
Upgrading existing servers
Investing in Unified Communications
Implementing new networks
Upgrading line of business software (LOB)
Others
Upgrading PC & network security software
Similarly, there are 1,199 million or 1.99 billion households within the G20 member countries which represent 72 percent of total number of households worldwide. These G20 households are forecast to spend US$96 billion on IT in 2010 representing over 87 percent of worldwide consumer spending. The PC penetration among households within G20 countries is only 44 percent but it constitutes over 86 percent of worldwide households that have at least one PC.
We at Techaisle just completed a large 10 country survey of SMBs. I will showcase interesting data from that study from time to time. One of the key things the data reveals is that small businesses are very likely to drive Netbook sales in the coming months. There are two things that the data reveals
1. SBs in emerging markets are particularly interested in acquiring netbooks
2. SBs with > 20 employees show higher purchase intent than smaller SBs
The last point is particularly interesting because while the Netbook was conceived as a low cost consumer device, it is being rapidly adopted by businesses. This has several implications
- There is significant latent demand for a low cost ultra-mobile device in business markets
- The lines between “consumer” and “business” devices in the mobile computing world are clearly blurred. Thank the Blackberrys and the iPhones for that. Any distinction now is typically propagated by device manufacturers to avoid potential cannibalization of existing products
- Computing is no longer defined solely by “Intel/AMD + Microsoft + Google”. While these players remain dominant, there is a lot of entropy in this eco-system now. nVidia is spreading its wings with the Tegra chips for mobile devices and GPU based processing (already available in the MacBook Air).
While a lot of applications on these new devices will likely be purely consumer oriented, there is no doubt that the creativity of software developers will lead to interesting applications for the business world as well. For example, Tegra chips deliver 1080P HD video – a boon for consumer devices but no doubt business users could use it for HD videoconferencing and other applications.
For small businesses it will invariably mean more choices for computing on the go. Ultimately though the decision to use one device over another depends upon the applications available once the initial excitement and hype of a new user experience has waned. So while these devices will be battlegrounds, the defining battles will largely be between software companies.
More information about the survey can be found here
Qualcomm and Freescale today amnounced plans to launch “Smartbooks” – a family of internet connected devices. The name is an obvious attempt to distance themselves from the Netbook category. So what are smartbooks? The primary function is to connect to the internet. The cost Qualcomm claims will be lower than Netbooks. The battery life will be longer. They will run a Linux based OS as opposed to Windows XP or Windows 7.
But is there really a market for all these devices? or are vendors segmenting the market so finely that each segment is a mere sliver? Let us consider the full spectrum of mobile devices today from smartphones to notebooks.
As shown in the chart, the space in the lower left quadrant copmprising of smartphones, smartbooks and netbooks is a key competitive battleground with potentially Netbooks getting squeezed. while both smartphones and netbooks exposed a latent need for lighweight mobile computing devices, how that space consolidates is too early to tell.
One things is clear though – the traditional business computing space is not likely to be cannibalized by these devices for two reasons
1. These devices will likely be used in addition to traditional notebooks. Further these devices (netbooks excepted) will not be running Windows which is a major problem for business adoption
2. The impending release of ULVs or ultra low voltage processors will lead to lighter business PCs running industry standard OSs (Windows)
Fighting for a slice or a sliver?
Whether or not these devices will succeed depends largely on the appetite for consumers and businesses to adopt multiple devices. Given the overlap in functionality buyers will be hard pressed to make choices about which device suits them the best. Currently smartphones and netbooks have the greatest momentum. At techaisle we believe that smartphones will win. The scenario where a smartphone such as an iPhone or an Android based phone get paired with a large screen and a keyboard is an intriguing one and could well destroy the opportunity for other types of devices. Even if that doesn’t happen, the market appears poised to fragment as more devices appear. While that may increase the size of the pie, vendors could be left fighting for slivers rather than slices.
Value Shift – It’s a broad term describing a directional shift within an industry. Every industry goes through such shifts periodically. Most of the time such shifts create new challenges and new opportunities. The impact is almost always big – industries re-structure, leaders fall and new leaders are born. Value Shifts rarely occur as a result of a single phenomenon. They are more akin to little ripples that build to a tsunami.
The computing industry has seen its share of value shifts over the last 3 decades – perhaps more rapidly than any other industry. That’s what makes it so exciting! I believe that we are poised for another such shift. It’s not about the Internet, Web 2.0, SaaS or Cloud Computing – these are merely ripples at the end of the day. The emerging Value Shift is about Device Independence.
The computing industry to date has largely been dependent upon PCs. In other words, the industry’s fortunes were tied to the adoption of that one single class of device. Everything else flows from that. Microsoft made the most of it earning billions as did others – including Google. But that dependence appears to be breaking down. I am constantly intrigued by two things these days – the phenomenal success of the iPhone and the current rage in PCs – Netbooks. After all, having spent the last 20 years tracking an industry where speeds, feeds and computing power have ruled, how does one explain people (in droves) buying a lower power platform with shrunken keyboards and screens? iPhones let you view the same websites and web applications that you access from Netbooks, notebooks and desktops. The experience from a usability standpoint is different for any individual device, but you can access the same information. And it’s not limited to websites and web apps. You can use any number of free products to access your PC using an iphone (read about it here ). In other words device independence.
The “Information Fabric”
Padmasree Warrior, the CTO of Cisco puts forth a compelling prediction – the emergence of an “information fabric”. I believe it. The fabric can be defined in many ways and a many levels – from the lowest level network protocols to the highest level where information is consumed by individuals and corporations. Most importantly, the information fabric, I believe, will not limit itself to allow consumption and utilization of information by a single device or even a class of devices. Instead it will enable consumption by a whole range of devices leveraging the unique user experiences of each device.
The Ripples that Matter
It’s not difficult to see the key technologies that are driving this Shift. Of note are continued advances in virtualization and remoting where performance and user experience is improving rapidly. But also worth noting are storage technologies that are becoming common to different kinds of devices – specifically flash storage, whereas in the past application performance was somewhat dependent on type of storage used. The commonly understood technologies impacting bandwidth, throughput improvement, network capacity, data center optimization also continually push us towards device independence.
It’s All About Productivity
Ultimately the move towards device independence is about productivity resulting from the freedom to use the device that best suits the work environment at any given point is time (a smartphone, a PC, a Netbook or even a Kindle). A lot of pieces need to fall into place and getting to true device independence will take a long time but there is no doubt that the ripples that started this value shift are transforming into a Tsunami.
There’s been a lot of talk and blogging about communities being central to people on the web. The web, pundits say is changing from one of passive consumption to a participatory (I hate the word “interactive”) experience. A lot of web x.0 sites such as Diggit, MySpace, facebook are exactly about that. Despite the talk and clear evidence marketing departments are mired in traditional approaches that do not directly address the power of Value Based Communities. Lets just call them VBCs for simplicity. I believe that these marketers ignore communities at their own risk. So what are VBCs and why are they important? Its easy to define a VBC – a community that comes together as a result of shared beliefs. Those beliefs could range from an interest in saving the environment, a love for dogs (or other animals), a passion for astronomy and so forth. Communities have existed throughout evolution. The first community was drawn together with a common belief in survival resulting in early instances of prehistoric man hunting in groups and forming families. Communities then are the basis of existence! indeed great changes have come about as a result of communities being created along shared values – The creation of America being a prime example. But enough about history. What about today? What role do communities play and why are they ever more relevant? One has only to witness the current election where Obama’s message of “Change” is creating a voter community sharing a common belief and value that change is essential in government (Politicians in my view have been consummate marketers to creating and pandering to communities). It is amazing then that so few marketing efforts focus on understanding and mining the power of communities engaging instead in traditional marketing efforts. Market research in particular tends to fall short in this respect. Here are some reasons why marketers should actively focus on VBCs
1. Shared values = MOTIVATION: Every marketer seeks to understand what motivates a customer. Values are the strongest form of motivation that spurs action
2. Community = ACTION: A community comes together for the purpose of taking action, driven by a set of values. All communities without exception can clearly identify their purpose and values. Conversely, communities that cannot do so eventually fracture and fade away or give rise to new communities
3. Community = VALUED PEER INFLUENCES: A community’s members are highly instrumental in impacting each others choices about a variety of things. The affinity brought about by shared values often leads to valuing a peer’s recommendation and eventual purchase
As stated earlier, current marketing approaches often ignore these realities, in most cases either totally ignoring their existence or ignoring the values that created the community in the first place. Traditional marketing tactics place emphasis on a standard criteria such as customer’s location, demographics, purchase preferences, race, age, education etc. – in other words, marketers understand the “what” and the “how” but rarely do they venture into understanding the “why” from a values perspective. And if at all they do, there is a broad generalization that hides critical differences among individuals. Among voters, for example, labels such as Republican or Democrat are supposed to indicate shared beliefs but the truth is that such generalizations mask shifts in values occurring within each party. Each party now has sub-groups such as Liberal Republicans and Conservative Democrats. Consumer group descriptions such as GenX, GenY also mask a multitude of values. I will stop here now and continue on this topic over the next few days. In the mean time, I look forward to your thoughts, comments and opinions in the coming days…..
The folks over at gigaom have written a nice analysis of the iPhone market. you can read that here. It would appear that the success metric for any platform these days is the length of the “app tail” and Apple is growing its tale much like the mythical Hindu monkey god Hanuman. Legend has it that the evil king Ravana set his tail on fire. He exacted his revenge by growing his tail winding it through the city of Lanka and burning it to the ground. In a sense, that is exactly what Apple is doing (minus the revenge bit). Apple took an approach that worked for it in the music buisiness and replicated it for the iPone. Why have they succeeded when others have (in relative terms) failed?
Think Different!
That tag line from the late 80s early 90s is very much alive in Cupertino. That drove their willingness to break the stranglehold of phone companies who for years took the walled garden approach to mobile applications. That undeniably marxist approach ultimately limited the market. The rationale was – everyone’s doing it. Thats the point. That strategy ignored what consumers wanted. No different from the music business
Wow Everybody!
The use of technologies such as multi-touch and accelerometers made it compelling enough for at least one phone company to take notice. To their credit, AT&T smartly tore down their own walled garden (in a sense) and made the deal with Apple, gaining exclusivity in return. They got a device no one had seen before. Consumers got excited by the new capabilities, developers found a new creative outlet. An eco-system was born.
Stabilize the Universe
The creation of the iPhone was akin to the big bang. From it spun out a billion planets (apps) but the real work begins now. For life to be sustained, the universe needs to be stabilized. Microsoft knows a lot about this incidentally having very ably stabilized the desktop and server app universe over the past 3 decades. The mobile world is not forgiving enough to give Apple that kind of time, but stabilize it they must for this is the most profitable period of market exapnsion for them. As long as they keep coming out with good devices they will remain the center of the mobile app world.
Repeat until failure
At some point Apple will falter on one of its strategies. Its going to happen. Until then they will keep repeating this formula making just enough changes to fit the opportunity at hand.
Could this indeed be a killer app? It could be. As a small business my mobile phone is my lifeline. Indeed at Techaisle we all rely on our mobile phone. for inter-office calls and for communicating with our remote teams, we use Skype. So the combination of the two would help tremendously.
It is intriguing to think about what this does to a unified communications strategy of companies like Microsoft and Cisco. There are some differences and a comprehensive UC solution offers much more. But the low end of the market – very small businesses may find the above solution just good enough.
Microsoft released a new ad that has been making the rounds on various web video sites and on TV. The new ad shows a lady who states she is not too cool to afford a Mac. Clearly Microsoft is taking a swipe at the higher cost of Macs in a down economy. During discussion last night with some friends, they all liked the ad (Disclosure: they all work at Microsoft. That said, they are generally pretty objective people). They liked the ad because they believed it was on target. I respectfully dissented and here’s why -
1. Everyone knows that the Mac is more expensive. That fact does not need to be reinforced. If at all it should be reinforced in good times when people are spending freely. They are not.
2. Windows rules. And will for the foreseeable future. People don’t buy PCs for low prices. They buy them because they are the standard. So what is the point of this ad?
3. Mac is a luxury brand and is consciously positioned as such. Luxury brands are forced to sustain their cache during rough economic times. That is the risk they take. You don’t see Mercedes and BMW lowering their prices because their image is linked to those prices. And once you lower prices you can’t bring them back up again. Occasional rebates, yes. Lower MSRP, no.
4. Finally, this approach can backfire. The PC ad indirectly heightens the “aspirational status” of the Mac. Like the guy who goes from driving a Honda Accord to driving a BMW, the current ads suggest that when times are better, it is OK to buy a Mac and indeed a consumer should aspire to do so but for now buy a PC.
The Microsoft ads that have “I am a PC and I am not alone” are therefore on target and beautifully made. The other set of “I am a PC” ads that show kids doing stuff are awesome. Perhaps the best tech ads I have ever seen. Both of the above evoke a strong sensory reaction. Exactly what is needed to counter Mac ads that have done this so effectively on the past.
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As shown in the chart, the space in the lower left quadrant copmprising of smartphones, smartbooks and netbooks is a key competitive battleground with potentially Netbooks getting squeezed. while both smartphones and netbooks exposed a latent need for lighweight mobile computing devices, how that space consolidates is too early to tell.
